Prediction markets, built for the economy.
EPX is the Economic Prediction Exchange — turning economic data, financial markets, and the stock market into actionable intelligence for traders, portfolio managers, and analysts.
Bloomberg tells you what happened. EPX tells you how expectations are changing — before everyone agrees.
Prefer the narrative? Read The Logical Economist's Economic Read
Markets We List
New to prediction markets?
We monitor the markets and leading prediction exchanges, then apply our proprietary methodology to flag when expectations are too high or too low — and where consensus is shifting across platforms.
What is a prediction market?
A marketplace where the price of a contract is the crowd's probability that an event happens. A contract at 34¢ means a 34% chance.
The Logical Economist
EPX's proprietary model blends economic data, probability & statistics, and pricing from multiple prediction sites into one estimate.
What EPX is for
Institutional-grade reads on recessions, the Fed, inflation and rates — the questions that move markets, all in one terminal.
Built for anyone trading the economy's outcomes
Whether you bet on prediction markets, trade the tape, invest for the long run, or manage a book — EPX turns changing expectations into an edge you can act on.
Prediction-market bettors
See where our model disagrees with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing — the Expectation Gap™ flags contracts that may be mispriced before the crowd re-rates them.
Active traders
Track how recession, Fed, inflation and rate expectations shift through the session — and which markets are moving — so you can position ahead of consensus.
Investors
A daily, institutional-grade read on the macro backdrop — regime, confidence and revisions in one place — to inform how you tilt risk.
Portfolio managers
Monitor correlation regimes and macro confidence to stress-test positioning and frame the probabilities behind your asset-allocation calls.
What the EPX indicators tell you
Proprietary measures that turn scattered data into a read on where expectations are heading — updated as new data lands.
Expectation Gap™
How far our model probability sits from live prediction-market pricing — the wider the gap, the bigger the potential opportunity.
Revision Index™
The net direction of recent macro data revisions across FRED, BLS and BEA — whether the underlying data is quietly getting better or worse.
Macro Confidence Score™
A 0–100 composite of the macro backdrop — a fast read on whether conditions are constructive, neutral or defensive.
Regime & Correlation Engine™
The current market regime and how assets are moving together — context for how much a data surprise actually matters right now.
Live Probability Dashboard
The consensus view on the world's most important economic questions, updated in real time.
The EPX Desk
EPX Pulse
Daily changes in key probabilities delivered directly to you.
EPX Consensus
Aggregate crowd and market expectations mapped over time.
EPX Signals
Alerts on the biggest expectation shifts before they make news.
EPX Research
Deep dive commentary from The Logical Economist.
The probabilities are the data.
The interpretation is the edge.
The Logical Economist by Rob Stein explains what changed, why it changed, and what it means for investors. We don't just give you the numbers—we give you the context to build conviction.
Read MethodologyGet the EPX Daily Pulse
Start your day with the most significant shifts in economic probabilities.