The Economic Prediction Exchange™
Welcome to EPX — the Economic Prediction Exchange — the first exchange of its kind, built for an entirely new market: the prediction market. Join us and contribute to the process, or put the data to work for your own initiatives. Enjoy.
Prefer the narrative? Read The Logical Economist's Economic Read
New to prediction markets?
EPX does for the economy what equity analysts do for the stock market — turning scattered prediction-market signals and economic data into one clear probability.
What is a prediction market?
A marketplace where the price of a contract is the crowd's probability that an event happens. A contract at 34¢ means a 34% chance.
The Logical Economist
EPX's proprietary model blends economic data, probability & statistics, and pricing from multiple prediction sites into one estimate.
What EPX is for
Institutional-grade reads on recessions, the Fed, inflation and rates — the questions that move markets, all in one terminal.
Live Probability Dashboard
The consensus view on the world's most important economic questions, updated in real time.
The EPX Desk
EPX Pulse
Daily changes in key probabilities delivered directly to you.
EPX Consensus
Aggregate crowd and market expectations mapped over time.
EPX Signals
Alerts on the biggest expectation shifts before they make news.
EPX Research
Deep dive commentary from The Logical Economist.
The probabilities are the data.
The interpretation is the edge.
The Logical Economist by Rob Stein explains what changed, why it changed, and what it means for investors. We don't just give you the numbers—we give you the context to build conviction.
Read MethodologyGet the EPX Daily Pulse
Start your day with the most significant shifts in economic probabilities.